Economists Forecast Strong Housing Growth
Experts at NAHB conference see a turnaround occurring by mid-2010, but the way back will be long
By Craig Webb, ProSales Online
The U.S. housing market appears to have bottomed out and looks likely to return closer to normal--but not boom--levels by 2012, a group of housing economists predicted today.
Enthusiasm with several strings attached was the prevailing mood expressed in presentations prepared for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) 2009 Fall Construction Forecast Conference. Read more.
Housing Starts Hold Steady in September
Total housing starts, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), came in at 590,000, according to data released today by the Commerce Department. That's 0.5% ahead of the previous month -- which was adjusted downward, from 598,000 to 587,000.
If not for the downward adjustment of August starts, the total percentage would have declined 1.3%.
There was better news for builders, and their suppliers, in the single-family front. Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 501,000; this is 3.9% above the revised August figure. Moreover, the August figure was revised upward, from a previously stated 479,000 to 482,000.
Compared with September of last year, total starts declined 28.2%, and single-family starts declined 8.7%. Read more.
September housing construction rises 0.5 percent
By Martin Crutsinger
Source: Associated Press/AP Online
Construction of new homes edged up slightly in September, helped by a rebound in single-family construction. However, in a worrisome sign for future housing work, applications for building permits fell by the largest amount in five months. Read more.
More Signs of Economic Recovery
The decline in consumer spending on home renovation projects is tapering off, and remodeling activity should start to pick up early next year, according to a just-released study by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.
The quarterly forecast pointed to several positive signs that could boost home improvement spending, causing a reversal in annual declines by the second quarter of 2010. Read more.
Showing posts with label Housing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Housing. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
News You Can Use - Trends and Numbers
Survey: Boomers Want Single Level, Energy-Efficient Homes in the Suburbs
A new survey reveals that 55+ Americans would prefer suburban living in single-story homes with amenities, particularly high-speed Internet access, for their later years, and they don't consider "universal" design a priority. These are some of the findings from 55+ Housing: Builders, Buyers, and Beyond, a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the MetLife Mature Market Institute, which asked owners and renters about their current homes and the types of homes, communities and features they prefer as they age. Read more.
Overall Housing Starts Rise 1.5 Percent in August
Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 598,000, 1.5 percent higher than July figures, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Single family starts, however, fell 3 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 479,000.
NAHB blamed the pullback in single-family starts on the looming expiration of the $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers. Read more.
A new survey reveals that 55+ Americans would prefer suburban living in single-story homes with amenities, particularly high-speed Internet access, for their later years, and they don't consider "universal" design a priority. These are some of the findings from 55+ Housing: Builders, Buyers, and Beyond, a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the MetLife Mature Market Institute, which asked owners and renters about their current homes and the types of homes, communities and features they prefer as they age. Read more.
Overall Housing Starts Rise 1.5 Percent in August
Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 598,000, 1.5 percent higher than July figures, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Single family starts, however, fell 3 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 479,000.
NAHB blamed the pullback in single-family starts on the looming expiration of the $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers. Read more.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
More Signs of Hope for Housing Market
The S&P/Case-Shiller Index, a leading barometer of the U.S. housing market, recorded a slowing of the rate of decline for existing-home prices for May 2009. This is the fourth consecutive month that both the 10-city and 20-city composites showed improvement, which is being heralded as a possible turnaround for the stalled real estate market. Read more.
News You Can Use - Trends and Numbers
Overall Housing Starts Rise 3.6 Percent in June, With Single-Family Starts Up 14.4 Percent
Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 582,000, 3.6 percent above the revised May estimate of 562,000, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 470,000, a 14.4 percent increase above the revised May figure of 411,000, the agency reported. Read more.
Existing-home Sales Rise 3.6 Percent in June 2009
Existing-home sales rose for the third consecutive month with inventory easing and home prices declining less sharply in June, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – increased 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units in June from a downwardly revised pace of 4.72 million in May, but are 0.2 percent lower than the 4.90 million-unit level in June 2008.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, is hopeful about the gain. "The increase in existing-home sales occurred in all major regions of the country," he said. "We expect a gradual uptrend in sales to continue due to tax credit incentives and historically high affordability conditions. Despite the rise in closed transactions, many Realtors® are reporting lost sales as a result of new appraisal standards that went into effect May 1 of this year." Read more.
New Home Sales Soar 11 Percent in June
Sales of new single-family houses in June 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, 11 percent above sales in May, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The figure, however, is 21.3 percent below the June 2008 estimate of 488,000.
Sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 11 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000 units, according to U.S. Commerce Department numbers released today. Coming on the heels of an upwardly revised number for May, the gain marks a third consecutive month of improved sales activity. Read more.
Survey Finds Home Prices Increased Significantly in May
NEW YORK, NY -- According to the May 2009 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report released last week by Radar Logic Incorporated, the price per square foot for housing increased from April to May in 22 of the 25 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) covered by the report. The price gains in most of these MSAs were larger than average for the month of May, which may indicate that seasonal market forces are being augmented by a more lasting recovery in these housing markets.
Radar Logic's 25-MSA Composite increased 2.1% in May on a month-over-month basis, which was an improvement from its 1.2% increase in April. The 25-MSA Composite has increased 3.7% since March 30, 2009, when it hit its lowest point since the end of the housing boom. Read more.
Consumer Confidence Falls for Second Straight Month
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™, which had retreated in June, declined further in July. The Index now stands at 46.6, down from 49.3 in June. The Present Situation Index decreased to 23.4 from 25.0 last month. The Expectations Index declined to 62.0 from 65.5 in June. Read more.
Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 582,000, 3.6 percent above the revised May estimate of 562,000, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 470,000, a 14.4 percent increase above the revised May figure of 411,000, the agency reported. Read more.
Existing-home Sales Rise 3.6 Percent in June 2009
Existing-home sales rose for the third consecutive month with inventory easing and home prices declining less sharply in June, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – increased 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units in June from a downwardly revised pace of 4.72 million in May, but are 0.2 percent lower than the 4.90 million-unit level in June 2008.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, is hopeful about the gain. "The increase in existing-home sales occurred in all major regions of the country," he said. "We expect a gradual uptrend in sales to continue due to tax credit incentives and historically high affordability conditions. Despite the rise in closed transactions, many Realtors® are reporting lost sales as a result of new appraisal standards that went into effect May 1 of this year." Read more.
New Home Sales Soar 11 Percent in June
Sales of new single-family houses in June 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, 11 percent above sales in May, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The figure, however, is 21.3 percent below the June 2008 estimate of 488,000.
Sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 11 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000 units, according to U.S. Commerce Department numbers released today. Coming on the heels of an upwardly revised number for May, the gain marks a third consecutive month of improved sales activity. Read more.
Survey Finds Home Prices Increased Significantly in May
NEW YORK, NY -- According to the May 2009 RPX Monthly Housing Market Report released last week by Radar Logic Incorporated, the price per square foot for housing increased from April to May in 22 of the 25 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) covered by the report. The price gains in most of these MSAs were larger than average for the month of May, which may indicate that seasonal market forces are being augmented by a more lasting recovery in these housing markets.
Radar Logic's 25-MSA Composite increased 2.1% in May on a month-over-month basis, which was an improvement from its 1.2% increase in April. The 25-MSA Composite has increased 3.7% since March 30, 2009, when it hit its lowest point since the end of the housing boom. Read more.
Consumer Confidence Falls for Second Straight Month
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™, which had retreated in June, declined further in July. The Index now stands at 46.6, down from 49.3 in June. The Present Situation Index decreased to 23.4 from 25.0 last month. The Expectations Index declined to 62.0 from 65.5 in June. Read more.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
News You Can Use - Trends and Numbers
Movement To Expand Home Buyer Tax Credit Gains Steam
Some federal bills would increase amount available for all buyers. But budget deficits raise questions about the extent of state programs, particularly in California.
Some federal bills would increase amount available for all buyers. But budget deficits raise questions about the extent of state programs, particularly in California.
Source: BUILDER Online
By John Caulfield
Pressure on lawmakers to extend and increase the federal tax credit for home buyers has intensified in recent weeks. Congressional committees are now weighing no fewer than seven housing tax credit-related bills. Prominent business groups have lent their support for such measures. And governors of several states have authorized their own tax credits or advances on the federal credit. So far, though, only lawmakers in California have indicated they'd like to see their state's largesse extend beyond this year. Read more.
Pressure on lawmakers to extend and increase the federal tax credit for home buyers has intensified in recent weeks. Congressional committees are now weighing no fewer than seven housing tax credit-related bills. Prominent business groups have lent their support for such measures. And governors of several states have authorized their own tax credits or advances on the federal credit. So far, though, only lawmakers in California have indicated they'd like to see their state's largesse extend beyond this year. Read more.
A price index of lumber and panels used in actual construction for June 26, 2009
*Western - regional species perimeter foundation; Southern - regional species slab construction.
Crow's Market Recap -- A condensed recap of the market conditions for the major North American softwood lumber and panel products as reported in Crow’s Weekly Market Report. Read more.
*Western - regional species perimeter foundation; Southern - regional species slab construction.
Crow's Market Recap -- A condensed recap of the market conditions for the major North American softwood lumber and panel products as reported in Crow’s Weekly Market Report. Read more.
Builders Indicate 'Cautious Optimism'
Sales, traffic improving even in move-up and active adult markets
Sales, traffic improving even in move-up and active adult markets
Source: BUILDER Online
By Alison Rice
The mood of the moment for builders? Cautious optimism. At the Jones Company of Tennessee, traffic has improved in May and June compared to the early months of 2009. "We are cautiously optimistic," said Bridget Wright, marketing director for the Franklin, Tenn.-based firm. Read more.
The mood of the moment for builders? Cautious optimism. At the Jones Company of Tennessee, traffic has improved in May and June compared to the early months of 2009. "We are cautiously optimistic," said Bridget Wright, marketing director for the Franklin, Tenn.-based firm. Read more.
Poised for a Comeback
The window industry's annual market report contains both good news and bad
The window industry's annual market report contains both good news and bad
Source: REPLACEMENT CONTRACTOR Magazine
With housing starts down in double digits for 2008, the window industry could hardly expect to be booming. And guess what? It's not.The recently released "2008/2009 AAMA/WDMA U.S. National Statistical Review and Forecast," a numbingly thorough examination of the door, window, and skylight industry's trends and prospects, found little to celebrate. Read more.
Existing-Home Sales Rise in May
Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions and a first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. May's increase was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005.
Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions and a first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. May's increase was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005.
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.77 million units in May from a downwardly revised level of 4.66 million units in April, but remained 3.6 percent below the 4.95 million-unit pace in May 2008. Read more.
Harvard's 2009 State of the Nation's Housing Report Sees Challenges to Recovery, But Strong Future Demand
The worst housing downturn in generations continues to grind on, finds a study released today by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Despite some stabilization in homebuilding and home sales in the spring, real home prices continued to fall and foreclosures mount in most areas in the first quarter of the 2009. With mortgage interest rates heading higher in June and the economy still contracting, a sustained recovery for housing still faces an uphill climb. “Although there are some signs of improvement or at least steadiness in new construction and sales,” says Nicolas P. Retsinas, Director of the Joint Center, “housing starts stand near 60+ year lows and any life in home sales is coming from distressed foreclosure sales, temporary first-time buyer tax credits, and low interest rates that moved higher in recent weeks.” Read more.
The worst housing downturn in generations continues to grind on, finds a study released today by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Despite some stabilization in homebuilding and home sales in the spring, real home prices continued to fall and foreclosures mount in most areas in the first quarter of the 2009. With mortgage interest rates heading higher in June and the economy still contracting, a sustained recovery for housing still faces an uphill climb. “Although there are some signs of improvement or at least steadiness in new construction and sales,” says Nicolas P. Retsinas, Director of the Joint Center, “housing starts stand near 60+ year lows and any life in home sales is coming from distressed foreclosure sales, temporary first-time buyer tax credits, and low interest rates that moved higher in recent weeks.” Read more.
New Home Sales Fall in May
Sales of new one-family houses in May 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000, 0.6 percent below the revised April rate of 344,000, according to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The performance is 32.8 percent below the May 2008 estimate of 509,000. Read more.
Sales of new one-family houses in May 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000, 0.6 percent below the revised April rate of 344,000, according to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The performance is 32.8 percent below the May 2008 estimate of 509,000. Read more.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Economic Lessons from the Housing Boom and Bust
Jim Moody, CAE
CSA President
We were without kids a couple of weeks ago, and Sandi and I took the opportunity for a date night at the bookstore. I know you are wishing you could live a life as exciting as mine, but everyone can’t have that jet-set lifestyle.
Anyway, I noticed a book on the “new nonfiction” table that caught my eye. “The Housing Boom and Bust” is authored by Thomas Sowell, an economist from Stanford and a syndicated columnist. I thought it would be worth a read to see what he had to say.
Honestly, the first few pages were a disappointment. He started out with basic definitions of the Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and ARMs. Fortunately, it got better quicker. Here are some pearls of wisdom that he casts out:
· The media view our housing crisis as a national problem, and it is if you consider how housing has pulled down the whole economy. But many of the problems that led to economic disaster were local in origin. Drastically overvalued home prices and incredibly high foreclosure rates have been confined to some fairly small areas.
· The spread of laws and policies severely restricting the use of land (open space, saving farmland, protecting the environment, historical preservation, etc.) is a major factor in the unreasonable rise in home values. As one expert said, “The affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing: the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land.”
· A prevailing misconception is that the free market failed to produce affordable housing and that government intervention was necessary to allow ordinary people to find a place to live within their means. But the evidence shows that precisely where there has been massive government intervention in the form of severe building restrictions, housing prices have skyrocketed.
· Everyone who took advantage of creative financing was not an idiot or trying to live beyond their means. It is rational to think that your income will go up over time, and it was rational to expect home prices to continue to go up, providing equity. Unfortunately, it was a house of cards.
· On the other hand, low interest rates and lowered eligibility standards for loans allowed many low-income (which often corresponds with less educated) people to buy homes. They were ill prepared to understand the complexities of mortgages and the implications of their choices.
· Members of both political parties are guilty of urging federal regulatory agencies to press banks and other lenders to lower mortgage requirements. They also both passed legislation to subsidize or guarantee loans made under the lowered standards. Presidents of both parties have gone on record that a higher rate of home ownership was desirable.
· When normal people think of affordable housing, they think of something within a person’s means. When politicians talk about affordable housing, they mean that people choose what they want and government finds a way to make it financially possible for them. The reality is, in terms of percent of income required for housing, the U.S. is quite affordable on average.
· The lack of government regulation has been cited as causation for the housing bust. In reality, government intervention to lower mortgage standards and restrict land use were the underlying factors. The trigger was rising interest rates, which had been exceptionally low until the Federal Reserve started raising them to more normal levels in 2004. Monthly payments went up, demand for housing went down, and the wheels fell off.
· There were assertions before the bust that lending institutions unfairly denied minorities for loans based simply on race. The Clinton Administration in particular made it known that banks that looked like they were making decisions on race would face harsh penalties. We now know that over half of the loans to African Americans and 40 percent of the loans to Hispanics were subprime loans, and both groups were hit hard by foreclosure. A careful study of the numbers shows that it was income, net worth and credit scores that banks were looking at – not race. When they had no choice but to increase minority lending, they were being set up for failure.
· The bailout and stimulus bills (one from the end of the Bush term, one from the beginning of the Obama term) are not going to provide significant help until the market has already corrected itself. Few, if any, net jobs will be gained. Ultimately, this spending will increase inflation. In short, doing nothing would have been a better choice for the government.
· Many of the problems that government is seeking to solve right now are the result of previous “quick fix” solutions that were heralded by the very politicians who are castigating those decisions today.
There is much more to the book than I’ve included here. It’s an interesting and fairly quick read. Sowell doesn’t make predictions on when we’ll come out of the mess, and he doesn’t really lay out a road map that we should aim to travel on. But, the book does put in fairly specific terms the lessons we need to learn from the boom and bust so that we aren’t doomed to repeat this ugly season. If you’d like to borrow my copy, just let me know.
I’d like to know what you’ve read recently that was useful. Doesn’t have to be housing-specific.
CSA President
We were without kids a couple of weeks ago, and Sandi and I took the opportunity for a date night at the bookstore. I know you are wishing you could live a life as exciting as mine, but everyone can’t have that jet-set lifestyle.
Anyway, I noticed a book on the “new nonfiction” table that caught my eye. “The Housing Boom and Bust” is authored by Thomas Sowell, an economist from Stanford and a syndicated columnist. I thought it would be worth a read to see what he had to say.
Honestly, the first few pages were a disappointment. He started out with basic definitions of the Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and ARMs. Fortunately, it got better quicker. Here are some pearls of wisdom that he casts out:
· The media view our housing crisis as a national problem, and it is if you consider how housing has pulled down the whole economy. But many of the problems that led to economic disaster were local in origin. Drastically overvalued home prices and incredibly high foreclosure rates have been confined to some fairly small areas.
· The spread of laws and policies severely restricting the use of land (open space, saving farmland, protecting the environment, historical preservation, etc.) is a major factor in the unreasonable rise in home values. As one expert said, “The affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing: the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land.”
· A prevailing misconception is that the free market failed to produce affordable housing and that government intervention was necessary to allow ordinary people to find a place to live within their means. But the evidence shows that precisely where there has been massive government intervention in the form of severe building restrictions, housing prices have skyrocketed.
· Everyone who took advantage of creative financing was not an idiot or trying to live beyond their means. It is rational to think that your income will go up over time, and it was rational to expect home prices to continue to go up, providing equity. Unfortunately, it was a house of cards.
· On the other hand, low interest rates and lowered eligibility standards for loans allowed many low-income (which often corresponds with less educated) people to buy homes. They were ill prepared to understand the complexities of mortgages and the implications of their choices.
· Members of both political parties are guilty of urging federal regulatory agencies to press banks and other lenders to lower mortgage requirements. They also both passed legislation to subsidize or guarantee loans made under the lowered standards. Presidents of both parties have gone on record that a higher rate of home ownership was desirable.
· When normal people think of affordable housing, they think of something within a person’s means. When politicians talk about affordable housing, they mean that people choose what they want and government finds a way to make it financially possible for them. The reality is, in terms of percent of income required for housing, the U.S. is quite affordable on average.
· The lack of government regulation has been cited as causation for the housing bust. In reality, government intervention to lower mortgage standards and restrict land use were the underlying factors. The trigger was rising interest rates, which had been exceptionally low until the Federal Reserve started raising them to more normal levels in 2004. Monthly payments went up, demand for housing went down, and the wheels fell off.
· There were assertions before the bust that lending institutions unfairly denied minorities for loans based simply on race. The Clinton Administration in particular made it known that banks that looked like they were making decisions on race would face harsh penalties. We now know that over half of the loans to African Americans and 40 percent of the loans to Hispanics were subprime loans, and both groups were hit hard by foreclosure. A careful study of the numbers shows that it was income, net worth and credit scores that banks were looking at – not race. When they had no choice but to increase minority lending, they were being set up for failure.
· The bailout and stimulus bills (one from the end of the Bush term, one from the beginning of the Obama term) are not going to provide significant help until the market has already corrected itself. Few, if any, net jobs will be gained. Ultimately, this spending will increase inflation. In short, doing nothing would have been a better choice for the government.
· Many of the problems that government is seeking to solve right now are the result of previous “quick fix” solutions that were heralded by the very politicians who are castigating those decisions today.
There is much more to the book than I’ve included here. It’s an interesting and fairly quick read. Sowell doesn’t make predictions on when we’ll come out of the mess, and he doesn’t really lay out a road map that we should aim to travel on. But, the book does put in fairly specific terms the lessons we need to learn from the boom and bust so that we aren’t doomed to repeat this ugly season. If you’d like to borrow my copy, just let me know.
I’d like to know what you’ve read recently that was useful. Doesn’t have to be housing-specific.
News You Can Use - Trends and Numbers
Market Recap: RISI Crow’s House Residential Framing Index
A price index of lumber and panels used in actual construction for June 19, 2009
*Western - regional species perimeter foundation; Southern - regional species slab construction.
Crow's Market Recap -- A condensed recap of the market conditions for the major North American softwood lumber and panel products as reported in Crow’s Weekly Market Report. Read more.
Despite Programs, Stabilzing Housing Market May Prove Difficult, Officials Warn
Source: The Philadelphia InquirerPublication date: June 21, 2009
By Alan J. Heavens, The Philadelphia Inquirer
Government officials and other observers agree that the U.S. housing market cannot recover until the foreclosure crisis is solved and a regulatory system is put in place that ensures no repeat of the lending debacle that caused it.
Yet the remarks of Obama administration officials and consumer advocates at a conference of real estate writers and editors here suggest that the very depth of the crisis means a resolution is far from close in coming. Read more.
State of the Nation's Housing
A study released today by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University finds that the housing downturn -- the worst in generations -- continues to grind on.
The positive news is there has been some stabilization in home building and home sales in the spring. Also, long-term demographics for future demand are strong. But real home prices continued to fall, and foreclosures mount in most areas in the first quarter of 2009. With mortgage interest rates heading higher in June and the economy still contracting, a sustained recovery for housing still faces an uphill climb, according to the report.
“Although there are some signs of improvement or at least steadiness in new construction and sales,” said Nicolas Retsinas, director of the Joint Center, “housing starts stand near 60+ year lows, and any life in home sales is coming from distressed foreclosure sales, temporary first-time buyer tax credits, and low interest rates that moved higher in recent weeks.” Read more.
Dealers Surge in Popularity Among Small Remodelers
HIRI study finds LBMs now top big boxes, but the economy may be warping the results
Source: PROSALES Information ServicePublication date: 2009-06-22
By Craig Webb
LBM operations nosed out big-box stores to become the preferred shopping source for small, general-service remodelers in 2008, a new study by the Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI) finds. But the study's author believes the economic slump figured heavily in the swing, and he notes that specialty remodelers continue to rank LBMs fourth in popularity behind wholesalers, specialty suppliers and the big boxes.
HIRI based its just-released findings on a telephone survey earlier this year of 538 general and 1,203 specialty remodelers. The poll also carved out results from 100 Hispanic-owned general contractors, who unlike their non-Hispanic counterparts tended to be much more loyal to the big boxes.
'Vanilla' home loans could benefit borrowers
Source: Associated Press/AP
By ALAN ZIBEL
If President Barack Obama gets his way, consumers who take out mortgages would automatically get a "plain vanilla" loan - such as a traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage - unless they opted for a riskier variety.
Obama's plan to revamp financial regulation aims to protect borrowers from the confusing and high-risk mortgages that fed a pandemic of delinquencies and foreclosures, led to the worst financial crisis in decades and thrust the nation into a deep recession.
Obama is expecting opposition to the plan, and cautioned Saturday in his radio address, "While I'm not spoiling for a fight, I'm ready for one."
Government officials want to make the process of getting a mortgage as simple and abuse-free as signing up for a retirement savings plan: A growing number of companies now automatically enroll new employees in 401(k) plans unless they opt out. Read more.
Fed unlikely to try new aids for economy, for now
Source: Associated Press
By JEANNINE AVERSA
With the recession easing, Federal Reserve policymakers are unlikely to launch any major new efforts to revive the economy when they meet this week. Instead, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues, wary of overdoing the stimulus medicine and fanning inflation later, are expected to stand pat, economists say.
The Fed has taken unprecedented steps to try to lift the country out of recession. They include a bold effort announced in March to plow $1.2 trillion into the economy in an attempt to lower interest rates and spur more spending by Americans.
"There are a lot of good signs that an economic recovery could get under way later this year, and with inflation currently low, the Fed for now has the luxury of sitting back and watching this recovery unfold," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia. Read more.
A price index of lumber and panels used in actual construction for June 19, 2009
*Western - regional species perimeter foundation; Southern - regional species slab construction.
Crow's Market Recap -- A condensed recap of the market conditions for the major North American softwood lumber and panel products as reported in Crow’s Weekly Market Report. Read more.
Despite Programs, Stabilzing Housing Market May Prove Difficult, Officials Warn
Source: The Philadelphia InquirerPublication date: June 21, 2009
By Alan J. Heavens, The Philadelphia Inquirer
Government officials and other observers agree that the U.S. housing market cannot recover until the foreclosure crisis is solved and a regulatory system is put in place that ensures no repeat of the lending debacle that caused it.
Yet the remarks of Obama administration officials and consumer advocates at a conference of real estate writers and editors here suggest that the very depth of the crisis means a resolution is far from close in coming. Read more.
State of the Nation's Housing
A study released today by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University finds that the housing downturn -- the worst in generations -- continues to grind on.
The positive news is there has been some stabilization in home building and home sales in the spring. Also, long-term demographics for future demand are strong. But real home prices continued to fall, and foreclosures mount in most areas in the first quarter of 2009. With mortgage interest rates heading higher in June and the economy still contracting, a sustained recovery for housing still faces an uphill climb, according to the report.
“Although there are some signs of improvement or at least steadiness in new construction and sales,” said Nicolas Retsinas, director of the Joint Center, “housing starts stand near 60+ year lows, and any life in home sales is coming from distressed foreclosure sales, temporary first-time buyer tax credits, and low interest rates that moved higher in recent weeks.” Read more.
Dealers Surge in Popularity Among Small Remodelers
HIRI study finds LBMs now top big boxes, but the economy may be warping the results
Source: PROSALES Information ServicePublication date: 2009-06-22
By Craig Webb
LBM operations nosed out big-box stores to become the preferred shopping source for small, general-service remodelers in 2008, a new study by the Home Improvement Research Institute (HIRI) finds. But the study's author believes the economic slump figured heavily in the swing, and he notes that specialty remodelers continue to rank LBMs fourth in popularity behind wholesalers, specialty suppliers and the big boxes.
HIRI based its just-released findings on a telephone survey earlier this year of 538 general and 1,203 specialty remodelers. The poll also carved out results from 100 Hispanic-owned general contractors, who unlike their non-Hispanic counterparts tended to be much more loyal to the big boxes.
'Vanilla' home loans could benefit borrowers
Source: Associated Press/AP
By ALAN ZIBEL
If President Barack Obama gets his way, consumers who take out mortgages would automatically get a "plain vanilla" loan - such as a traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage - unless they opted for a riskier variety.
Obama's plan to revamp financial regulation aims to protect borrowers from the confusing and high-risk mortgages that fed a pandemic of delinquencies and foreclosures, led to the worst financial crisis in decades and thrust the nation into a deep recession.
Obama is expecting opposition to the plan, and cautioned Saturday in his radio address, "While I'm not spoiling for a fight, I'm ready for one."
Government officials want to make the process of getting a mortgage as simple and abuse-free as signing up for a retirement savings plan: A growing number of companies now automatically enroll new employees in 401(k) plans unless they opt out. Read more.
Fed unlikely to try new aids for economy, for now
Source: Associated Press
By JEANNINE AVERSA
With the recession easing, Federal Reserve policymakers are unlikely to launch any major new efforts to revive the economy when they meet this week. Instead, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues, wary of overdoing the stimulus medicine and fanning inflation later, are expected to stand pat, economists say.
The Fed has taken unprecedented steps to try to lift the country out of recession. They include a bold effort announced in March to plow $1.2 trillion into the economy in an attempt to lower interest rates and spur more spending by Americans.
"There are a lot of good signs that an economic recovery could get under way later this year, and with inflation currently low, the Fed for now has the luxury of sitting back and watching this recovery unfold," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia. Read more.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
News You Can Use - Trends and Studies
Survey Sets Median Pro Dealer's Margin at 26.62%
Last year's median pretax profit was just 0.62%, latest Cost of Doing Business Report finds
Source: PROSALES Information ServicePublication date: June 16, 2009
By Craig Webb
The median pro-oriented building material dealer posted a gross margin of 26.62% and a pretax profit of just 0.62%, the 2009 Cost of Doing Business Report (CODB) reveals. Read more.
Housing starts climb in May
(Jun. 16) After receiving disappointing housing-starts stats for March and April, the industry received some good news for May, when starts jumped 17.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 532,000, according to data released Tuesday by the Department of Commerce. Single-family starts increased 7.5% to a rate of 401,000 -- cracking the 400,000 mark for the first time since November 2008.
The numbers looked good compared with April's all-time low rate of 458,000, however, both metrics are well below a year ago. Total starts were down 45.2%, and single-family starts were down 40.9%, compared with May 2008. Read more.
Builder Confidence Slips One Point in June
NAHB says housing market and economy are "fragile."
Source: BUILDER OnlinePublication date: June 15, 2009
By Alison Rice
Builders' confidence in the housing market wobbled in June, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.
The monthly index, which measures builders' assessment of buyer traffic as well as current and future sales, dipped one point this month to a reading of 15. "As expected, the housing market continues to bump along trying to find a bottom," said David Crowe, NAHB's chief economist, in a statement. Read more.
Retail sales down 4.7% from last year
(Jun. 11) According to the National Retail Federation, retail industry sales for May (which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.2% seasonally adjusted from April but dropped 4.7% unadjusted over last year.
May retail sales released today by the U.S. Commerce Department show total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 0.5% seasonally adjusted over April and decreased 11.1% unadjusted year-over-year.
“With no direct stimulus for consumers this year, retailers were left with tougher comparisons, making May retail sales appear weak,” said NRF chief economist Rosalind Wells. “However, a slight sales increase from April provides hope that the economic turnaround may not be that far off.” Read more.
New Index Foresees Recession's End
Source: USA TODAYPublication date: June 11, 2009
By John Waggoner
The recession likely will end in September and be followed by a mild recovery, according to the new USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight economic outlook index.
But despite Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's recent talk of the economy's "green shoots," few are confident prosperity is near. And the Fed's "beige book" report released Wednesday, a look at the nation's regional economies, says that the economy remained generally weak in April and May. Read more.
Foreclosure Rate Dips in May
Source: USA TODAYPublication date: June 11, 2009
By Stephanie Armour
The pace of foreclosures remains at a historic high and mortgage demand is tumbling as interest rates climb, reflecting a wobbly housing recovery that could falter if rates continue to rise.
While foreclosure filings dipped 6% in May compared with a month earlier, the overall pace of foreclosures was still the third-highest month on record, according to a report today from RealtyTrac. Foreclosure filings were reported on 321,480 homes during May, an increase of 18% from May 2008. One in every 398 homes received a foreclosure filing last month. Read more.
Last year's median pretax profit was just 0.62%, latest Cost of Doing Business Report finds
Source: PROSALES Information ServicePublication date: June 16, 2009
By Craig Webb
The median pro-oriented building material dealer posted a gross margin of 26.62% and a pretax profit of just 0.62%, the 2009 Cost of Doing Business Report (CODB) reveals. Read more.
Housing starts climb in May
(Jun. 16) After receiving disappointing housing-starts stats for March and April, the industry received some good news for May, when starts jumped 17.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 532,000, according to data released Tuesday by the Department of Commerce. Single-family starts increased 7.5% to a rate of 401,000 -- cracking the 400,000 mark for the first time since November 2008.
The numbers looked good compared with April's all-time low rate of 458,000, however, both metrics are well below a year ago. Total starts were down 45.2%, and single-family starts were down 40.9%, compared with May 2008. Read more.
Builder Confidence Slips One Point in June
NAHB says housing market and economy are "fragile."
Source: BUILDER OnlinePublication date: June 15, 2009
By Alison Rice
Builders' confidence in the housing market wobbled in June, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.
The monthly index, which measures builders' assessment of buyer traffic as well as current and future sales, dipped one point this month to a reading of 15. "As expected, the housing market continues to bump along trying to find a bottom," said David Crowe, NAHB's chief economist, in a statement. Read more.
Retail sales down 4.7% from last year
(Jun. 11) According to the National Retail Federation, retail industry sales for May (which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.2% seasonally adjusted from April but dropped 4.7% unadjusted over last year.
May retail sales released today by the U.S. Commerce Department show total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 0.5% seasonally adjusted over April and decreased 11.1% unadjusted year-over-year.
“With no direct stimulus for consumers this year, retailers were left with tougher comparisons, making May retail sales appear weak,” said NRF chief economist Rosalind Wells. “However, a slight sales increase from April provides hope that the economic turnaround may not be that far off.” Read more.
New Index Foresees Recession's End
Source: USA TODAYPublication date: June 11, 2009
By John Waggoner
The recession likely will end in September and be followed by a mild recovery, according to the new USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight economic outlook index.
But despite Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's recent talk of the economy's "green shoots," few are confident prosperity is near. And the Fed's "beige book" report released Wednesday, a look at the nation's regional economies, says that the economy remained generally weak in April and May. Read more.
Foreclosure Rate Dips in May
Source: USA TODAYPublication date: June 11, 2009
By Stephanie Armour
The pace of foreclosures remains at a historic high and mortgage demand is tumbling as interest rates climb, reflecting a wobbly housing recovery that could falter if rates continue to rise.
While foreclosure filings dipped 6% in May compared with a month earlier, the overall pace of foreclosures was still the third-highest month on record, according to a report today from RealtyTrac. Foreclosure filings were reported on 321,480 homes during May, an increase of 18% from May 2008. One in every 398 homes received a foreclosure filing last month. Read more.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Dream Again
CSA is partnering with lumber dealer associations nationwide in an effort to promote home ownership, construction and remodeling. As published in the March 20, 2009, Random Lengths report, the following positive market conditions illustrate why we believe that now is the perfect time for the American public to DREAM AGAIN.
1. Affordability of both homes and building materials are now at an all-time high
2. Existing home sales are rising
3. There is an abundant supply of homes from which buyers can choose
4. There are some amazing incentive programs now available federally and through various local and state governments
5. Interest rates are at all-time lows
We believe lumber dealers and suppliers can play a vital part in educating the public that now would be a terrific time to build a new home, buy a home that is on the market, or finally build that long-desired room addition or garage.
> An electronic version of the DREAM AGAIN poster for reproduction
> Sample editorials that you can personalize and send to your local paper
> Sample display advertisements for local newspapers and publications
> Sample bill-stuffers that can be copied, cut, and used with invoices.
> Suggestions on how to have the posters printed
CSA is providing your company with this free DREAM AGAIN kit. Included in the kit are:
Starting May 15, and running through the summer of 2009, the campaign will be nationwide and anticipates that every local lumber yard and their suppliers will take part in just a small way. Because we have dealer-members and associate- members in every significant city in the United States, we corporately possess amazing public relations strength if we all act together towards the same end.
It is our hope that each of you will participate by doing the following in your local communities:
> Print and display the poster in your stores and in your cities
> Personalize the editorial and/or display ads for use in your local newspapers and publications
> Print, cut, and include the statement stuffers in all your mailings over the summer
> Consider placing the poster or display ad on billboards or advertising on buses, benches, etc.
As your association we will, of course, be available to help you with this promotion. Professional printers can create full-color posters using the electronic files that are available with the DREAM AGAIN kit. Posters can be printed and mounted on foam boards for under $40.00 at Kinko’s at http://fedex.com/us/office/.
Sincerely,
Jim Moody, President
Construction Suppliers Association
1. Affordability of both homes and building materials are now at an all-time high
2. Existing home sales are rising
3. There is an abundant supply of homes from which buyers can choose
4. There are some amazing incentive programs now available federally and through various local and state governments
5. Interest rates are at all-time lows
We believe lumber dealers and suppliers can play a vital part in educating the public that now would be a terrific time to build a new home, buy a home that is on the market, or finally build that long-desired room addition or garage.
> An electronic version of the DREAM AGAIN poster for reproduction
> Sample editorials that you can personalize and send to your local paper
> Sample display advertisements for local newspapers and publications
> Sample bill-stuffers that can be copied, cut, and used with invoices.
> Suggestions on how to have the posters printed
CSA is providing your company with this free DREAM AGAIN kit. Included in the kit are:
Starting May 15, and running through the summer of 2009, the campaign will be nationwide and anticipates that every local lumber yard and their suppliers will take part in just a small way. Because we have dealer-members and associate- members in every significant city in the United States, we corporately possess amazing public relations strength if we all act together towards the same end.
It is our hope that each of you will participate by doing the following in your local communities:
> Print and display the poster in your stores and in your cities
> Personalize the editorial and/or display ads for use in your local newspapers and publications
> Print, cut, and include the statement stuffers in all your mailings over the summer
> Consider placing the poster or display ad on billboards or advertising on buses, benches, etc.
As your association we will, of course, be available to help you with this promotion. Professional printers can create full-color posters using the electronic files that are available with the DREAM AGAIN kit. Posters can be printed and mounted on foam boards for under $40.00 at Kinko’s at http://fedex.com/us/office/.
Sincerely,
Jim Moody, President
Construction Suppliers Association
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