Showing posts with label Economic Issues. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic Issues. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

From ProSales Online: Tips for Surviving a Hostile Economy

Florida dealer Don Magruder's 10 ideas don't have anything to do with management or sales, but they could make the difference between survival and failure.

By Don Magruder
Over the last three years, the hostile economic times have taken a major toll on the well-being of employees and businesses, with many coming ever so close to their rope's end. As business people, many of us have been fighting very hard to survive, but we must never forget the folks who bear the heaviest load of those pay cuts, reduced hours, and dwindling benefits: our employees. An encouraging word or clearing of a path in the direction of common sense may be the difference between survival and surrender.

Sensing an increasing burden on many in our management and sales group, I shared with them my thoughts of how they and Ro-Mac Lumber could survive this hostile economic environment. Below are my top 10 tips for surviving these current hostile economic times. Most of you know them already, but it helps us all to refresh our souls. Read more.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Here’s Your Ray of Sunshine for the Week

Jim Moody
President


I recently spent a few days with my counterparts from the other state and regional LBM Dealer associations. It’s always good to get together with colleagues, and this is a robust community that shares information and ideas very well.

This year we met in Gettysburg, PA, which is sort of fitting given the times we live in. I was struck by several things at the meeting, some related to the association and some related to the industry.

It’s clear that most of us are in the same boat. Few parts of the country are doing well. Those energy-producing states in the middle part of the country seem to be holding their own, but everyone else is down. The good news is that we are not Michigan or Florida. The bad news is that most of my counterparts were more negative about the future than I’ve been.

Of course, our perspective of “bad” is a little distorted by the good times we’ve been through as a nation and as an industry. You don’t have to go too far on a tour of the battlefield at Gettysburg to gain a sense of perspective. Yes, these are bad times. But they are nothing like what this country has been through before.

Sure, most of us (and perhaps all of us) in this industry worry that the country is teetering on the brink of socialism. We worry about deficits, the credit system, and the fact that no one seems willing or able to build a new house. All of those are valid, but we’ve already seen that the worst predictions about the direction our country is taking are not coming true.

For instance, the card check legislation that all of us feared seems to have hit a wall. I won’t say it’s dead, because there are still compromises in the works. But the ability for a union to organize without a real vote isn’t going to happen.

Ditto on nationalized health care. We may end up with something, but I really don’t think that the full-fledged plan that the Obama administration wanted is going to go come to pass.

In the short run, our nation can move to the extremes. It certainly seemed that we had shifted far to the left. But the beauty of our system is that when the pendulum swings too far right or left, the huddled masses in the middle pull it back. I won’t predict that the majorities in the House or Senate are about to change, but over time (maybe even a short time), we’ll see moderation there. Even today with full control, the extreme liberal left doesn’t have enough power to force its full agenda on America.

So my point here is that while times are bad, they are nothing like we experienced in the Civil War (or War for Southern Independence for you Daughters of the Confederacy) or Reconstruction. We outlasted those bad times and built a great nation. We’ll come out of this as well. OK, maybe Michigan won’t. But everyone else will. Keep the faith.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Zandi: Recession Will End This Year

Moody's economist also says housing will not be 'an early source of growth' in this recovery.

Source: BUILDER OnlinePublication date: July 13, 2009
By Alison Rice


First, the good news. Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, believes the Great Recession will end this year.

If that's true, that will surely be welcomed by just about everyone. During this difficult economic period, more than 8 million jobs have been lost. Housing starts have dropped to an annualized level of 500,000 units, down from more than 2 million in 2005. Banks large and small have failed. Read more.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Economic Lessons from the Housing Boom and Bust

Jim Moody, CAE
CSA President

We were without kids a couple of weeks ago, and Sandi and I took the opportunity for a date night at the bookstore. I know you are wishing you could live a life as exciting as mine, but everyone can’t have that jet-set lifestyle.

Anyway, I noticed a book on the “new nonfiction” table that caught my eye. “The Housing Boom and Bust” is authored by Thomas Sowell, an economist from Stanford and a syndicated columnist. I thought it would be worth a read to see what he had to say.

Honestly, the first few pages were a disappointment. He started out with basic definitions of the Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and ARMs. Fortunately, it got better quicker. Here are some pearls of wisdom that he casts out:

· The media view our housing crisis as a national problem, and it is if you consider how housing has pulled down the whole economy. But many of the problems that led to economic disaster were local in origin. Drastically overvalued home prices and incredibly high foreclosure rates have been confined to some fairly small areas.
· The spread of laws and policies severely restricting the use of land (open space, saving farmland, protecting the environment, historical preservation, etc.) is a major factor in the unreasonable rise in home values. As one expert said, “The affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing: the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land.”
· A prevailing misconception is that the free market failed to produce affordable housing and that government intervention was necessary to allow ordinary people to find a place to live within their means. But the evidence shows that precisely where there has been massive government intervention in the form of severe building restrictions, housing prices have skyrocketed.
· Everyone who took advantage of creative financing was not an idiot or trying to live beyond their means. It is rational to think that your income will go up over time, and it was rational to expect home prices to continue to go up, providing equity. Unfortunately, it was a house of cards.
· On the other hand, low interest rates and lowered eligibility standards for loans allowed many low-income (which often corresponds with less educated) people to buy homes. They were ill prepared to understand the complexities of mortgages and the implications of their choices.
· Members of both political parties are guilty of urging federal regulatory agencies to press banks and other lenders to lower mortgage requirements. They also both passed legislation to subsidize or guarantee loans made under the lowered standards. Presidents of both parties have gone on record that a higher rate of home ownership was desirable.
· When normal people think of affordable housing, they think of something within a person’s means. When politicians talk about affordable housing, they mean that people choose what they want and government finds a way to make it financially possible for them. The reality is, in terms of percent of income required for housing, the U.S. is quite affordable on average.
· The lack of government regulation has been cited as causation for the housing bust. In reality, government intervention to lower mortgage standards and restrict land use were the underlying factors. The trigger was rising interest rates, which had been exceptionally low until the Federal Reserve started raising them to more normal levels in 2004. Monthly payments went up, demand for housing went down, and the wheels fell off.
· There were assertions before the bust that lending institutions unfairly denied minorities for loans based simply on race. The Clinton Administration in particular made it known that banks that looked like they were making decisions on race would face harsh penalties. We now know that over half of the loans to African Americans and 40 percent of the loans to Hispanics were subprime loans, and both groups were hit hard by foreclosure. A careful study of the numbers shows that it was income, net worth and credit scores that banks were looking at – not race. When they had no choice but to increase minority lending, they were being set up for failure.
· The bailout and stimulus bills (one from the end of the Bush term, one from the beginning of the Obama term) are not going to provide significant help until the market has already corrected itself. Few, if any, net jobs will be gained. Ultimately, this spending will increase inflation. In short, doing nothing would have been a better choice for the government.
· Many of the problems that government is seeking to solve right now are the result of previous “quick fix” solutions that were heralded by the very politicians who are castigating those decisions today.

There is much more to the book than I’ve included here. It’s an interesting and fairly quick read. Sowell doesn’t make predictions on when we’ll come out of the mess, and he doesn’t really lay out a road map that we should aim to travel on. But, the book does put in fairly specific terms the lessons we need to learn from the boom and bust so that we aren’t doomed to repeat this ugly season. If you’d like to borrow my copy, just let me know.

I’d like to know what you’ve read recently that was useful. Doesn’t have to be housing-specific.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

News You Can Use

Remodeler-Focused Dealer Rises From Ply Mart's Ashes
Georgia's Mahaffey brothers are back in business with PMC Building Materials

Source: PROSALES Information ServicePublication date: May 13, 2009
By Andy Carlo

Have you wondered what ever happened to Randy and Rich Mahaffey, the Georgia brothers who led Ply Mart when it became ProSales' Dealer of the Year in January 2007 and were pretty much out of business 18 months later? Like Atlanta's symbol, the phoenix, the Mahaffeys have returned to the construction supply business as the force behind PMC Building Materials in Marietta, Ga. Read more.

Slide in U.S. Home Prices Slows in March
Integrated Asset Services, LLC, a leading provider of end-to-end mortgage services solutions, today released its latest IAS360™ House Price Index. Based on the timeliest and most granular data available in the industry, the benchmark index showed national house prices falling another 1.0% in March.

The March numbers come on top of a 3.0% drop in February and a 3.5% plunge in January, the index's worst single-month decline ever. On a year-over-year basis, U.S. house prices are now down 13.9%, with a full 10.7% coming since September when the economy began unwinding. IAS360 reports prices down 17.7 % from the height of the real estate bubble in 2006. Read more.

Evidence piling up that worst of recession is over
Source: Associated Press/AP OnlinePublication date: May 8, 2009
By JEANNINE AVERSA


Evidence is piling up that the worst part of the recession has ended. But that doesn't mean the pain is over.

A better-than-expected unemployment report Friday - job losses declined to the lowest level in six months - capped a week of encouraging news, including firmer home sales, a revival in consumer spending and fresh optimism about the biggest U.S. banks. Read more.

Professional Remodelers Key To Earning Energy-Efficiency Tax Credits
Homeowners now can claim up to $1,500 in expanded energy-efficiency tax credits for remodeling their principal residence to reduce energy consumption. Available until the end of 2010, the revamped Existing Home Retrofit Tax Credit (25C) tax credit helps consumers save two ways: on their costs and on their ultilty bills.

"Remodelers can help find the best methods of saving energy in your home with an assessment, like a home energy audit," explained NAHB Remodelers Chairman Greg Miedema, CGR, CGB, CAPS, CGP, a remodeler from Tucson, Ariz. "Tightening the house to reduce air leakage by adding insulation, fixing ducts, and installing a more efficient heating and air conditioning system can help save on energy bills today while also reducing next year's tax bill." Read more.

There will be wind: Hurricane forecast sees increase in 2009
The upcoming 2009 hurricane season is expected to be more active than average, according to an expert forecast.

The number of named storms from June 1 to Nov. 30 -- the official hurricane season -- is expected to be 12, compared with the average of 9.6. The findings were announced at the Honeywell Generator booth (#33334) during the National Hardware Show.

Of six major measurements of hurricane activity, four are expected to surpass historic averages. The only metric where a decline in activity is forecast is "intense hurricanes," which is forecast at 2, down from 2.3. Read more.

National Geographic Debuts Line Of Energy-Efficient Hybrid Outdoor Lighting
National Geographic has introduced a new line of energy-efficient outdoor lighting, called the Preserve Our Planet Hybrid Lighting Collection. The collection is available exclusively at LAMPS PLUS, the nation's largest specialty lighting retailer. With green features that enhance the quality of the lamps, the collection offers an eco-friendly solution to outdoor lighting, as it promotes energy conservation, home safety and cost-efficiency. Read more.

LP Recalls Composite Decking
Source: PROSALES Information ServicePublication date: May 13, 2009
By Craig Webb


Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (LP) has launched a voluntary recall of 48 million linear feet of composite decking that can deteriorate prematurely and unexpectedly break, the federal Consumer Products Safety Commission (CPSC) announced today. Read more.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Are We There Yet?

By: Jim Moody, President

Academic types call economics “the dismal science.” Over the past couple of years, the rest of us have gained insight into why this is the case. There have been many, many writings by learned folks discussing how the current economic crisis is the end of our prosperity, our financial system, our country as we know it, capitalism, the world – you fill in the blank. Yet here we are, in the 17th month of this Great Recession, and the world has not ended.

There have been severe effects, and I don’t want to discount the pain that so many people have felt. But even with relatively high unemployment, reduced consumer spending, tight credit, endless foreclosures, overbuilt retail, and a stock market that is worth half what it used to be, there is still a lot of good out there. The vast majority of us still have jobs. We don’t see soup lines around the block. Bargains abound for consumers. We still live in exorbitant prosperity compared with much of the world and compared to our previous generations.

We’ve been so overwhelmed with negative economic reports that we seem to have forgotten these things. We also seem to have overlooked some pretty strong indicators that the days of doom and gloom are numbered.

Maybe we have hit bottom, and it just hasn’t been widely acknowledged yet. We are seeing some very positive signs on the housing front. Prices continue to fall while interest rates hold low, so inventory is drawing down. Homebuilders see glimmers of hope. Stocks, which tend to be a precursor of the economy as a whole, rebounded nicely in March and April. Inventories are down below unsustainable levels, indicating that manufacturing and purchasing must go up soon.
You may be wondering why economics is the dismal science. It stems back to the Victorian era when a leading mind of the day forecast the end of the human race because food production couldn’t keep up with population growth. Fortunately, he was wrong. Just like those with “the end is near” signs around their necks today.

Sure, we’ve all taken financial hits in the recession. But the best days for capitalism, for our country, and for lumber dealers lie ahead.

We all know that good times hide a lot of business sins. You’ve had nearly two years for those sins to be exposed in your business. I hope you’ve made the effort to clean things up while you’ve had the opportunity. If you have, you’ll be poised to take advantage of the better days that really are just around the corner.